PJM Capacity Auction Results Explained for Ohio Businesses

Ohio market insight · Capacity & grid

Updated September 27, 2026Ohio Commercial Energy editorial teamHow we review content Book a free 15-min bill review

The short answer

PJM's capacity price for the Ohio zones went from $28.92/MW-day in 2024/25 to $269.92 in 2025/26, then cleared at the price cap for the next three delivery years: $329.17 (2026/27), $333.44 (2027/28) and $325.00 (2028/29). At $329.17, every kW of your capacity tag costs about $120 a year, versus about $10.56 in 2024/25. Because those prices are now fixed through May 2029, capacity is a known cost in any contract that ends by then — the open questions are your own tag and what happens from June 2029 onward.

This page is the reference for the auction results themselves. For how the 2025/26 jump actually reached bills, see the 2025 capacity case study; for dollar impacts by account size, see capacity bill math for 2026–2029; for lowering your tag, see the PLC playbook; for PJM's hot-weather alerts and what to do during them, see PJM alerts and what to do; for running a facility through a heat emergency, see heat-emergency operations; and for what a capacity tag is, see capacity tags explained.

Every recent auction result

PJM's Base Residual Auction (BRA) buys generating capacity for a 12-month delivery year that runs June 1 to May 31. All four Ohio utility zones — AEP, ATSI (Ohio Edison, The Illuminating Company, Toledo Edison), Dayton (AES Ohio) and DEOK (Duke Energy Ohio) — cleared at the RTO-wide price in each auction below except 2024/25, when Duke's zone was higher.

Delivery year	Results posted	RTO price ($/MW-day)	≈ $ per kW-year of tag	Outcome
2024/25	Feb 27, 2023	$28.92 (DEOK $96.24)	$10.56 (DEOK $35.13)	Met requirement
2025/26	July 30, 2024	$269.92	$98.52	Met requirement; reserve margin fell to 18.5%
2026/27	July 22, 2025	$329.17 (cap)	$120.15	Slightly below the 19.1% target (18.9%)
2027/28	Dec 17, 2025	$333.44 (cap)	$121.71	6,623 MW short of the reliability requirement
2028/29	July 14, 2026	$325.00 (cap)	$118.63	6,831 MW short

The $/kW-year column is price × 365 ÷ 1,000. Your actual charge also reflects utility loss and scaling factors and PJM's final zonal pricing, so treat these as close approximations, not invoice figures.

Two points often get lost. First, these auctions were not held three years ahead, as the market was designed. After market-rule changes and FERC proceedings delayed the schedule, the 2025/26 and 2026/27 auctions ran only about ten months before delivery, and 2027/28 about 17 months ahead. PJM is working back toward a three-year lead; the 2029/30 auction is scheduled for December 2026. Second, "the capacity price" on a retail bill is always tied to a specific delivery year — a quote or contract that spans several Junes spans several prices.

Why prices hit the cap

PJM has pointed to the same forces in each auction:

Demand growth, mostly data centers. The forecast peak for 2026/27 rose by more than 5,400 MW year over year. For 2027/28 it rose about 5,250 MW, of which PJM attributed nearly 5,100 MW to data centers.
Retirements and slow new entry. About 6,600 MW retired or announced retirement ahead of the 2025/26 auction. In the 2028/29 auction only 525 MW of new generation and uprates cleared.
Stricter accreditation. FERC-approved reforms now credit each resource type for its expected contribution during extreme weather, so the same fleet counts for fewer megawatts.

Without the cap, PJM's own simulation shows the 2026/27 auction would have cleared at $388.57/MW-day, about $2.9 billion more in total cost. In the next two auctions supply fell short of the reliability requirement outright, so the cap — not the balance of supply and demand — set the price.

The price collar through 2029/30

After a complaint by Pennsylvania's governor, PJM agreed to a temporary collar: a cap near $325/MW-day and a floor near $175/MW-day (exact values vary slightly by auction). FERC approved it for 2026/27 and 2027/28 in April 2025, and on April 28, 2026 accepted an extension to 2028/29 and 2029/30, with support from all 13 PJM-state governors and the federal government.

What that means for planning:

Delivery year	Price status	What to assume
2026/27 (now)	Known: $329.17	~$120 per kW-year
2027/28	Known: $333.44	~$122 per kW-year
2028/29	Known: $325.00	~$119 per kW-year
2029/30	Auction scheduled for Dec 2026; collar applies	Between roughly $64 and $119 per kW-year if it clears inside the collar
2030/31 onward	No collar approved	Unknown; supply is short, so upside risk is real

PJM is also running a separate one-time "backstop" procurement in fall 2026 aimed at the shortfall, with results planned for December 2, 2026. Who pays for it — the new large loads driving demand, or all customers — is being left largely to the states and has not been settled. Treat it as a possible future charge, not a certainty. For what the shortfall means for reliability, see PJM's capacity shortfall.

What each delivery year means for Ohio bills

Default (SSO) service. Ohio's utility default prices reset every June 1 and are set by auctions in which wholesale suppliers bid to serve non-shopping customers, capacity included. Capacity is spread across each rate class per kWh, so your own tag doesn't change your default price. Current small-business default prices and how to compare them are covered in the Ohio price to compare.

Fixed all-in supplier contracts. The supplier prices your tag into the fixed rate. With prices known through May 2029, a contract ending by then isn't a bet on the auction. Ask whether the rate re-prices when your tag changes each June 1, and how the contract handles any new PJM or regulatory charge.

Capacity pass-through contracts. You pay your tag × the delivery-year price as a separate line. You keep every dollar of tag reduction — and absorb any increase.

The year-over-year pattern for a stable tag: a small step up in June 2027, a small step down in June 2028, then an unknown step in June 2029.

Using the results in a supplier comparison

A common failure since 2024: two "fixed" offers that look 0.3¢ apart but treat capacity differently. Put these columns on every bid sheet and get the answers in writing:

Column	Question for the supplier
Capacity treatment by delivery year	Fixed in the rate, passed through, or partially open?
Tag changes	Does the price adjust when the June 1 tag changes?
New charges	Who bears the backstop cost or other new PJM charges?
Term end	Does the term cross into June 2029, where capacity is not yet priced?
Fees	Is broker compensation disclosed and equal across offers? (broker fees)

For the full process, see the energy RFP guide. Sites on different utilities should be priced separately — capacity prices are the same across the Ohio zones today, but delivery charges and enrollment rules are not.

FAQ

What is the PJM capacity price for 2026/27?

$329.17/MW-day for the entire PJM footprint, including all Ohio zones — about $120 per kW of capacity tag per year.

Why did the last three auctions all clear at the same level?

They cleared at a negotiated price cap of roughly $325–$333/MW-day. Without the cap, PJM estimated the 2026/27 price would have been $388.57, and the next two auctions fell short of the reliability requirement.

When will we know the 2029/30 capacity price?

The 2029/30 auction is scheduled for December 2026, and the price collar (about $175 to $325/MW-day) applies to it.

Does a high capacity price mean my bill rises immediately?

Only on pass-through contracts and at default-price resets each June 1. Fixed contracts absorb the cost until renewal, when the new price is built into the rate.