Forecasting Ohio Electricity Prices: Drivers and Data
The short answer
Ohio business electricity prices move on five things: wholesale energy at PJM's AEP-Dayton hub (driven heavily by natural gas prices), PJM capacity auctions, the utilities' default-price auctions that reset each June 1, delivery rate cases at PUCO, and state law. Almost all of it is public. Capacity is already known through May 2029 and delivery rates follow a docketed schedule, so the biggest remaining unknown in any forecast is wholesale energy.
For the forecasting methods themselves — forward curves, gas-and-heat-rate models, scenario bands — see how electricity price forecasts are built; for the current outlook, see the Ohio market forecast for 2026–2028.
The data sources dashboard
| Driver | What to watch | Where to find it | How often it moves | How far ahead it's known |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale energy | AEP-Dayton hub forward prices, on-peak and off-peak, 12–36 months out | Exchange futures (ICE, CME) or your supplier's forward curve | Daily | Traded, not fixed |
| Natural gas | NYMEX Henry Hub futures; EIA weekly storage report (Thursdays) | eia.gov, CME | Daily / weekly | Traded, not fixed |
| Capacity | PJM Base Residual Auction results, RTO and zone | pjm.com (RPM) | Once per auction | Through May 2029 |
| Default (SSO) prices | Auction results and new price to compare | energychoice.ohio.gov, utility filings | Each June 1; some utilities more often | About 12 months |
| Delivery rates | Rate cases, rider updates, multi-year plans | PUCO docketing system | Per case; HB 15 schedule | Pending cases signal changes up to about a year ahead |
| Actual prices paid | Ohio average commercial ¢/kWh | EIA Electric Power Monthly | Monthly | Backward-looking benchmark |
| Policy | HB 15 implementation, PJM market rule changes | PUCO, Ohio General Assembly, PJM | Irregular | Varies |
Wholesale energy: the AEP-Dayton hub and gas
The AEP-Dayton hub is the most liquid Ohio-area PJM trading point, and suppliers price energy in the FirstEnergy (ATSI) and Duke (DEOK) zones as a spread to it. When a supplier quotes a fixed price, the energy portion largely reflects the AEP-Dayton forward strip for your contract months, shaped to your load.
Natural gas matters because gas-fired plants often set the wholesale price in PJM. Watch three things:
- Henry Hub futures for the months you're pricing, especially winter.
- EIA's weekly storage report — storage entering winter relative to normal is the clearest signal of winter risk.
- The shape of the forward curve. A curve that rises into later years argues for locking longer; one that falls argues for shorter terms or layering.
Weather is the short-term swing factor: a hot summer or cold snap moves day-ahead prices and can pull forward prices up with them.
Capacity: the driver that's already known
| Delivery year | PJM RTO price ($/MW-day) | Auction date | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | $28.92 (DEOK $96.24) | — | Pre-increase baseline |
| 2025/26 | $269.92 | July 30, 2024 | First big step |
| 2026/27 | $329.17 | July 22, 2025 | At cap |
| 2027/28 | $333.44 | December 17, 2025 | At cap; 6,623 MW short of reliability requirement |
| 2028/29 | $325.00 | July 14, 2026 | At cap; 6,831 MW short |
At $329.17/MW-day, each kW of capacity tag costs about $120 a year. A price collar (roughly $175 to about $325+) applies through 2029/30, so the forecasting question for capacity is what happens after the collar, not before.
Load growth is the reason supply is tight. LBNL/DOE estimate US data centers used about 176 TWh in 2023 (4.4% of US electricity) and could use 325–580 TWh by 2028. In Ohio, AEP's data center tariff (effective July 23, 2025) requires new data-center loads above 25 MW to pay minimum demand of up to 85% of contracted capacity for up to 12 years — a sign of how much new load utilities expect.
Default prices: the June 1 reset
Utility default prices come from competitive auctions and reset each June 1. The 2026 reset for small businesses:
| Utility | Through May 2026 | From June 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio Edison (GS avg) | ~8.87¢ | ~9.38¢ |
| The Illuminating Company (GS avg) | ~8.88¢ | ~9.45¢ |
| Toledo Edison (GS avg) | ~8.90¢ | ~9.43¢ |
| Duke Rate DM (first 2,800 kWh) | ~10.59¢ | ~11.36¢ |
AEP Ohio and AES Ohio business defaults vary by rate schedule and appear on the bill. HB 15 repealed electric security plans, so default service will be procured through competitive bidding; AEP's existing plan (ESP V) runs through May 2028. Because the reset date is fixed, it's a natural anchor for contract start and end dates.
Delivery rates: a docketed calendar
| Utility | Latest action | What's next |
|---|---|---|
| AEP Ohio | April 1, 2026 order: net ~$58.7M annual decrease (includes ~$105M tax refund over 18 months) | Refund ends after 18 months; three-part bill from fall 2026 |
| FirstEnergy (OE, CEI, TE) | Net ~$39.4M annual reduction effective March 1, 2026 | Three-year plan for 2027–2029 filed May 2026 |
| Duke Energy Ohio | Case 26-0132-EL-AIR filed March 2026, ~3% non-residential | New rates expected around May 2027 |
| AES Ohio | November 2025 settlement, ~+$168M/yr base distribution | Three-year plan filed July 21, 2026 (~1%/yr) |
HB 15 requires each utility to file a rate case by the end of 2029 and every three years after, with a 360-day decision clock — which makes delivery changes more predictable than they used to be.
Checking forecasts against reality
EIA's Ohio average commercial price was 10.75¢/kWh in 2023 and 10.66¢ in 2024. For January–June 2026 it was about 13.78¢, against 11.07¢ a year earlier (preliminary data). Use these as a sanity check on budget assumptions, not as a quote: the average blends every utility, account size, default customer and contract customer.
A monthly 20-minute routine
- Note the AEP-Dayton 12-, 24- and 36-month forward strips and compare them with last month.
- Check Henry Hub futures and the latest storage report.
- Scan PJM news for auction schedules or rule changes.
- Check the PUCO docket for your utility's cases.
- Update your budget: known costs (capacity, current delivery rates) plus a range for energy.
FAQ
What is the AEP-Dayton hub?
It's the main PJM wholesale trading point for Ohio. Forward prices there are the starting point for most fixed-price supplier quotes in the state.
Are Ohio capacity costs known in advance?
Yes. PJM auctions have set capacity prices through May 2029: $329.17/MW-day for 2026/27, $333.44 for 2027/28 and $325.00 for 2028/29.
When do Ohio default electricity prices change?
Every June 1, when new auction-based prices take effect; some utilities also adjust during the year.
Where can I see what Ohio businesses actually pay?
EIA's Electric Power Monthly reports Ohio's average commercial price each month, with a lag.