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Ohio Commercial Electricity Outlook 2026–2028

Ohio market insight · Rates & regulation

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Market-reference note: Numerical default-price examples below retain their cited 2026 reference period. They are historical class-level context, not a current account quote. Confirm the applicable business rate, components and effective dates on your bill before comparing an offer. How to establish your benchmark.

The short answer

More of Ohio's 2026–2028 electricity cost is already known than in most years. PJM capacity prices are set through May 2029 at or near the cap ($325–$333 per MW-day). Small-business default prices at the FirstEnergy utilities are set through May 2027, and every utility's distribution path is decided or filed. The main unknowns are wholesale energy prices, which follow natural gas and weather, and the pace of data center load. EIA expects commercial prices in Ohio's region to rise modestly in 2027, and the illustrative ranges below show how much energy prices alone can move the result.

What is already known

Anchor Value Applies to
PJM capacity, 2026/27 $329.17/MW-day (cap) June 2026–May 2027
PJM capacity, 2027/28 $333.44/MW-day (cap; 6,623 MW short of target) June 2027–May 2028
PJM capacity, 2028/29 $325.00/MW-day (cap; 6,831 MW short of target) June 2028–May 2029
PJM capacity, 2029/30 Will clear between $175 and about $325/MW-day; auction December 9–15, 2026 June 2029–May 2030
FirstEnergy small-business SSO Ohio Edison ~9.38¢, CEI ~9.45¢, Toledo Edison ~9.43¢/kWh June 2026–May 2027
Duke Energy Ohio Rate DM ~11.36¢/kWh for the first 2,800 kWh From June 1, 2026
Ohio average commercial price (EIA) ~13.78¢/kWh (Jan–June 2026) vs 11.07¢ a year earlier Recent actual
EIA outlook, East North Central commercial ~14.02¢ (2026), ~14.21¢ (2027); U.S. ~13.99¢ and ~14.15¢ September 2026 forecast

At the capacity prices above, each kilowatt of capacity tag costs roughly $119–$122 a year from mid-2026 through mid-2029, compared with about $10.56 in 2024/25. That step change is already in 2026 prices, which is why the next three years look flatter on capacity than the last two did.

Distribution and transmission: planned, not open-ended

  • AEP Ohio: the April 2026 rate order produced a net revenue decrease, including a tax refund over 18 months that will run out. Its ESP V runs to May 2028, after which default supply moves to competitive bidding under House Bill 15.
  • FirstEnergy (Ohio Edison, CEI, Toledo Edison): net distribution reduction from March 2026; a 2027–2029 plan filed in May 2026 shows residential distribution increases of about 2.2–2.8% a year.
  • Duke Energy Ohio: a pending case seeks about a 3% non-residential increase, with new rates expected around May 2027.
  • AES Ohio: the 2025 settlement is in rates; a 2027–2029 plan proposes about 1% a year.
  • Transmission: formula-rate updates each spring (AEP Ohio's BTCR, FirstEnergy's Rider NMB) can move in either direction by class; plan for annual changes rather than a single step.

Under HB 15, every utility files a rate case by the end of 2029 and every three years after, so delivery changes now come on a predictable cycle.

What is still open

  • Wholesale energy prices. Natural gas usually sets the marginal price in PJM, so gas prices and weather drive most of the remaining supply uncertainty.
  • The June 2027 and June 2028 SSO resets. These follow utility auctions held in the months before each June 1 and will reflect energy forwards at auction time.
  • The 2029/30 auction. It matters for any contract running past May 2029.
  • Load growth. PJM's January 2026 forecast trimmed near-term peaks after stricter vetting of data center requests but still projects about 3.6% annual peak growth over ten years. The next forecast is due in early 2027.
  • Supply policy. Retirement delays, federal environmental rule changes and litigation over DOE emergency orders affect supply mainly after 2029.

Illustrative scenario ranges

These are sensitivity cases, not predictions. They start from EIA's January–June 2026 Ohio commercial average of 13.78¢/kWh and assume 60% of the price is supply (energy plus capacity) and 40% is delivery. Capacity is roughly flat over the period, so supply changes stand in for energy-price moves, applied half in 2027 and in full by 2028.

Case Assumptions 2027 (¢/kWh) 2028 (¢/kWh) Change by 2028
Lower Supply −10% by 2028; delivery +1% a year ~13.4 ~13.1 about −5%
Middle Supply flat; delivery +2.5% a year ~13.9 ~14.1 about +2%
Higher Supply +15% by 2028; delivery +4% a year ~14.6 ~15.5 about +12%

EIA's regional 2027 figure (about 14.2¢) sits between the middle and higher cases, but it covers five states and is not an Ohio forecast. Your own range depends on your load factor, capacity tag, rate schedule and contract dates. Swap in your own all-in rate and supply/delivery split to use the table.

How to use this outlook

  • Budget on the middle case and stress-test the higher one. For a site spending $100,000 a year, the gap between the middle and higher cases in 2028 is roughly $10,000.
  • Price contracts against known capacity. A term that ends by May 2029 prices only auctioned capacity years; longer terms carry a premium for the unknown 2029/30 and later years.
  • Lock energy in layers if your load is large enough, rather than on one day.
  • Manage your summer peak, because summer 2027 peaks set capacity tags for June 2028–May 2029.
  • Track the dates: the 2029/30 auction (results expected December 22, 2026); PJM's 2027 load forecast (early 2027); April 2027 rider updates; SSO auction results ahead of June 1, 2027; Duke's new rates (around May 2027); a decision on FirstEnergy's plan (around mid-2027); and the end of AEP Ohio's ESP V (May 2028).

For the forecasting techniques behind ranges like these, such as forward curves, heat rates and scenario bands, see energy price forecasting methods. For the Ohio data sources to watch and where to find them, see forecasting Ohio energy prices. To turn the outlook into a 12–24 month budget, see energy budgeting for Ohio businesses. Auction details are in the PJM capacity pillar, and the utility-by-utility case status is in Ohio utility rate cases in 2026.

FAQ

Will Ohio commercial electricity prices keep rising through 2028?

The large capacity-driven jump has already happened, and capacity prices are roughly flat through May 2029. Further changes depend mostly on natural gas prices and on modest planned increases in distribution rates.

Should I sign a contract now or wait?

Capacity costs through May 2029 are known, so waiting does not reveal much new information on that component. The open question is energy prices, which is why many buyers layer purchases or set a target price instead of trying to time one day.

How reliable is EIA's regional forecast for my business?

It is a useful benchmark for direction but covers five Midwest states and all commercial customers. Your costs depend on your utility, rate schedule, capacity tag and contract terms.

What would move prices outside these ranges?

A sustained natural gas price spike, a severe winter or summer, a faster-than-expected wave of data center load, or unexpected plant retirements. The 2029/30 auction can also add cost for contracts that run past May 2029.

Sources

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