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Ohio Commercial Electricity Trends to Watch, 2026–2030

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The short answer

Through 2030, Ohio business electricity costs will be shaped less by technology trends than by a handful of decisions already made: PJM capacity prices at or near the cap through May 2029, HB 15's overhaul of default service and rate cases, data-center load growth, and the end of Ohio's renewable mandate and several federal tax credits. Much of the next three years is already visible. What's still uncertain is natural gas prices, capacity auctions after the current price collar, and several pending court and legislative decisions.

For a price outlook built on these inputs, see the Ohio commercial energy market forecast. For HB 15 in detail, see the HB 15 business guide. For each utility's rate case, see the PUCO rate-case tracker.

Trend 1: Capacity costs stay high through at least May 2029

Delivery year (June–May) PJM capacity price ($/MW-day) Shortfall vs reliability requirement
2024/25 $28.92 —
2025/26 $269.92 —
2026/27 $329.17 (cap) —
2027/28 $333.44 (cap) 6,623 MW
2028/29 $325.00 (cap) 6,831 MW

A collar of roughly $175 to $325+ per MW-day applies through 2029/30. At these prices, each kW of capacity tag costs about $118–$122 a year, versus about $10.56 in 2024/25. Implication: capacity-tag management is worth more than it has ever been, and it will stay that way at least through the 2028/29 delivery year.

Trend 2: HB 15 changes how default service and delivery rates are set

HB 15, effective August 14, 2025:

  • Repealed electric security plans (ESPs). Default service will be procured through competitive bidding. Existing ESPs run until replaced; AEP Ohio's ESP V runs through May 2028.
  • Ended the OVEC "legacy generation" rider on August 14, 2025.
  • Put rate cases on a schedule: every utility must file by the end of 2029 and every three years after, with a 360-day decision deadline.
  • Opened behind-the-meter generation to mercantile customers (over 700,000 kWh a year), including third-party-owned generation, and barred utilities from owning new behind-the-meter generation.
  • Added contract-renewal notices: suppliers must notify residential and small commercial customers (demand of 25 kW or less) 90–60 and 45–15 days before a fixed contract rolls to a variable price, and send annual notices to variable-price customers.

Implication: delivery rates will change on a roughly three-year cycle, and large users have a new path to on-site or third-party supply.

Trend 3: Delivery rates reset utility by utility

  • AEP Ohio: an April 2026 order produced a net annual revenue decrease of about $58.7 million, and AEP Ohio is moving to a new three-part bill format starting in fall 2026.
  • FirstEnergy (Ohio Edison, CEI, Toledo Edison): a net reduction of about $39.4 million a year took effect March 1, 2026, with CEI up and Ohio Edison and Toledo Edison down. A three-year plan for 2027–2029 was filed in May 2026.
  • Duke Energy Ohio: requested about 3% for non-residential customers in March 2026, with new rates expected around May 2027.
  • AES Ohio: a November 2025 settlement raised base distribution revenue about $168 million a year; a three-year plan filed July 21, 2026 proposes about 1% a year.

Trend 4: Data centers drive load growth and new tariffs

PJM's independent market monitor found that including existing and forecast data-center load in the 2026/27 auction's forecast raised capacity market revenues by about $7.27 billion (82.1%), and called data-center growth the primary reason for current capacity-market conditions. Nationally, data centers used about 176 TWh in 2023 (4.4% of U.S. electricity), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory projects 325–580 TWh by 2028.

In Ohio, PUCO approved AEP Ohio's data-center tariff in July 2025. New data-center loads over 25 MW pay minimum demand charges of up to 85% of contracted capacity for up to 12 years, with an exit fee equal to three years of minimum charges. The Ohio Manufacturers' Association appealed the order to the Ohio Supreme Court in November 2025. See what the AEP Ohio data-center tariff means for other customers.

Trend 5: Mandates and incentives are shrinking, not growing

Program Status
Ohio renewable portfolio standard 8.5% in 2026; no requirement after 2026
Utility business efficiency rebates None at AEP Ohio, FirstEnergy, Duke Energy Ohio or AES Ohio
Federal commercial solar credit Construction must start by July 4, 2026, or service must begin by Dec. 31, 2027
Federal storage credit Full rate for construction starting through 2033, then 75%, 50% and 0% in 2034–2036
Section 179D deduction Ended for construction beginning after June 30, 2026
Section 30C EV charger credit Ended for property placed in service after June 30, 2026
Community solar Not law in Ohio; HB 303 passed the House in November 2025 and is pending in the Senate

Confirm any tax-credit treatment with a tax adviser. Implication: efficiency and on-site projects in Ohio now have to pay back mostly on bill savings.

Trend 6: Bills and data get more detailed

Smart meters are now widespread across Ohio's investor-owned utilities, AEP Ohio is rolling out a new bill format, and HB 15 gives larger users more supply options. Interval data will matter more when you buy power, manage your capacity tag and check your bills. See grid modernization and your business.

Timeline, 2026–2030

When What happens
June 1, 2026 2026/27 capacity price ($329.17) and new default prices take effect
Fall 2026 AEP Ohio three-part bill format begins
End of 2026 Last year of the Ohio RPS requirement
~May 2027 Duke Energy Ohio new rates expected
June 1, 2027 2027/28 capacity price ($333.44)
May 2028 AEP Ohio's ESP V ends
June 1, 2028 2028/29 capacity price ($325.00)
End of 2029 Deadline for utility rate-case filings under HB 15
2029/30 Last delivery year under the current capacity price collar

What's still uncertain

  • Natural gas prices, which drive wholesale energy prices.
  • Capacity prices from 2030/31 on, after the current collar expires.
  • The Ohio Supreme Court appeal of AEP Ohio's data-center tariff.
  • Community solar legislation (HB 303) in the Ohio Senate.
  • How default-service auctions change once ESPs are replaced under HB 15.

FAQ

Will Ohio business electricity prices go up through 2030?

Capacity costs are already set near record levels through May 2029, and Ohio's average commercial price rose to about 13.78¢/kWh in January–June 2026 from 11.07¢ a year earlier. Energy prices beyond that depend mainly on natural gas.

Does Ohio still have a renewable energy requirement?

Only through 2026, at 8.5%. HB 6 of 2019 set no requirement after 2026.

What does HB 15 change for businesses?

It ends electric security plans, schedules rate cases every three years after 2029, ends the OVEC rider, lets mercantile customers use behind-the-meter generation, and requires renewal notices before fixed contracts roll over.

Is community solar available in Ohio?

Not yet. HB 303 passed the Ohio House in November 2025 and is pending in the Senate.

Sources

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